What will we eat?

Ann Arbor Farmers Market in better times. Now closed by order of the governor.

Economists writing op-eds, government analysts, and news articles are pretty gloomy about the US food supply in coming months. I'm no economist, so I'm totally puzzled about the sum total of what I've read. Grocery stores have had unpredictable shortages, especially products like flour and many canned goods. I'm not doing my own shopping so I don't have any grasp of food prices or availability in my local shopping places or in general, though I am fortunate to have received most of the items I wanted. Quite a few of my fellow bloggers have described their own difficulties with expected deliveries that were unfilled, or with bare shelves if they were still shopping. Some have reduced incomes or immunocompromised relatives that make their lives really difficult. Others, while doing better, are also worried as I am.

Some things I've read in trying to see how dystopian our new dystopia will be:

"In its first assessment since the coronavirus was declared a pandemic, the government forecast lower prices for U.S. crops and livestock as a worldwide economic slowdown, the result of aggressive efforts to squash the virus, weakens the global appetite for food. The notable exceptions are wheat and rice, where panic buying has driven up prices for the food grains, said the USDA on Thursday." (America's Farm Report -- link)

"There’s been a spike in coronavirus cases at meat plants in the U.S., with hundreds of reported infections in just the last week. That’s adding to questions over the fragility of the food-supply chain and raising concerns about worker safety." (LA Times -- link)

"As US food banks handle record demand and grocery stores struggle to keep shelves stocked, farmers are dumping fresh milk and plowing vegetables back into the dirt as the shutdown of the food service industry has scrambled the supply chain. Roughly half the food grown in the US was previously destined for restaurants, schools, stadiums, theme parks and cruise ships." (Guardian -- link)

Many farmers say they have donated part of the surplus to food banks and Meals on Wheels programs, which have been overwhelmed with demand. But there is only so much perishable food that charities with limited numbers of refrigerators and volunteers can absorb. (New York Times -- link)

I'm aware that many types of food suppliers are trying to act creatively to keep us all happy and fed. The food bank in our town, like many food banks across the country, is working hard to provide groceries and meals for rapidly growing numbers of needy people. Many local restaurants in my town have closed, though quite a few have begun providing food for curbside pickup or delivery. In the New York Times, the LA Times, and other papers, I have read about restaurants that are now offering not only prepared meals, but also groceries re-packaged from their bulk supplies. Unfortunately this doesn't work financially for all restaurants. What I see and read about is enormous efforts at creative adaptation to a new and dangerous reality.

I have been very lucky. Friends and relatives are shopping for me, and have found most of what I requested, though I've tried not to ask anyone to spend excess time in the store. I've received curbside orders from one nearby small market, which is still well-provided with meat and produce; however, demand for their service is going up. My first order took 2 hours, second order 3 hours, third order 2 days. (Update: by April 12 the wait time was 10 days.)

At amazon.com, food offerings and prices are erratic from what I've seen. There's evidence of price gouging among the resellers; for example, garbanzo beans available for order exceed by five times or more the prices at Whole Foods or Kroger's. In hopes of keeping my own shelves supplied, I have made some orders when amazon showed availability of fairly-priced pantry products I can use; delivery for these items, formerly a day, is predicted to be in a few weeks. Is this caused by hoarding or by the drastic change in everyone's shopping possibilities?

Along with everyone else, I have questions, not answers. Because I'm concerned for myself and others -- for sick people, for people with limited resources, for people harmed by poverty and urban decay, and ultimately for the whole of our society -- I have been trying to grasp what's predicted by experts. Effects of the abrupt changes on consumers result from a variety of problems for farmers, processors, wholesalers, transport workers and so on. Will the grocery stores remain stocked, perhaps with more and more limited choices? Or will widespread want and hunger be the result of all the dislocations?

"The spread of the coronavirus has disrupted global supply chains, leading to shortages and price increases that are cascading from factories to ports to retail stores to consumers. ...

"Farmers are also learning in real time about the nation’s consumption habits. The quarantines have shown just how many more vegetables Americans eat when meals are prepared for them in restaurants than when they have to cook for themselves." (New York Times -- link)

A Meme. (Vivian Swift -- link)

The long article in the New York Times is especially detailed about the widespread consequences:

"The widespread destruction of fresh food — at a time when many Americans are hurting financially and millions are suddenly out of work — is an especially dystopian turn of events, even by the standards of a global pandemic. It reflects the profound economic uncertainty wrought by the virus and how difficult it has been for huge sectors of the economy, like agriculture, to adjust to such a sudden change in how they must operate." (New York Times -- link)

From the University of Florida IFAS Southwest Florida Research and Education Center an expert on the situation in Florida explained how the sudden drop in demand and new requirements for worker safety have resulted in a catastrophic situation for food growers. Suddenly, they can't find markets, and they are throwing away vast amounts. A long quote summarizes how enormous these consequences are for growers:

"We have heard many ideas and suggestions from the public and even local officials - what many people fail to realize is that picking, packing, cooling, storing and transporting veggies costs money and growers who have already lost 100’s of millions of dollars are understandably reluctant to throw good money after bad. It also costs money to maintain fields with no hope of sales in sight, so growers are disking up fields and maintaining just what they feel they have markets for. Unfortunately, this is only about 20-30% of the total acreage. Each acre of tomatoes costs 10-12,000 to grow and 5-6,000 to pick and pack. Unmaintained fields rapidly succumb to pests and diseases and soon become a breeding ground threatening the health of nearby fields that growers are trying to save for their remaining markets.  

"It is not only veggies, 10’s of thousands of gallons of milk are being applied to pastures. 

"People really have no concept of the amount of food we are taking about – Immokalee alone ships approximately 400-500 semis of vegetables a day from March through mid-May – this is 450 x 35,000 lbs = 15,750,000 lbs of veggies headed to market every day – add to this Belle Glade, Palm Beach Co, Homestead and the amounts are staggering. I know of one grower in Belle Glade who is disking up 1 million pounds of green beans every three days.  

"I would not be surprised if collective losses for South Florida growers do not exceed 1 possibly 2 billion dollars."  (from Marion Nestle).

Trying to make sense of all this is really challenging. I am reading what I can find and writing this blog post in an effort to put all these various facts together. The future, being totally unpredictable to experts, is opaque to me. I have no chance of knowing how supply and demand, price variations, and new danger of infection can combine and create the new food situation. All I can do is keep reading and hoping for better times, and maybe some effective government intervention to allay the problems.

Blog post copyright © 2020 mae sander for maefood dot blog spot dot com.